Lee Hsin-Chien, Hu Chaur-Jong, Chen Chin-Shyan, Lin Herng-Ching
Department of Psychiatry, Taipei Medical University-Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
Chronobiol Int. 2008 Nov;25(6):938-49. doi: 10.1080/07420520802551469.
Questions about the seasonality of stroke remain controversial. Using a nationwide population-based dataset, this study presents a time series analysis of seasonal patterns in ischemic stroke occurrence, along with their association with climate in Taiwan. Using data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, a total of 168,977 visits to emergency departments between 1998 and 2003 for ischemic stroke were identified for patients ranging between 20 and 84 yrs of age. Monthly stroke incidences were calculated for 72 months, by sex and stroke subtype, and for the age groups 20-54, 55-64, 65-74, and > or =75 yrs per 100,000 of the population. We performed auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analysis to investigate the presence of seasonality and any association with climate for acute ischemic stroke events. We found no significant seasonal variation in the incidence of ischemic stroke for any age or sex groups. Furthermore, after adjusting for seasonality, month, and trend, the ARIMA regression model revealed only associations between ischemic stroke incidence and atmospheric pressure. We conclude that seasonality of ischemic stroke does not exist in Taiwan. Ischemic stroke incidence is, however, significantly related to atmospheric pressure.
关于中风的季节性问题仍存在争议。本研究利用全国性的基于人群的数据集，对缺血性中风发生的季节性模式进行了时间序列分析，并探讨了其与台湾地区气候的关联。利用台湾国民健康保险研究数据库的数据，共确定了1998年至2003年间168977例20至84岁患者因缺血性中风到急诊科就诊的情况。按性别、中风亚型以及20 - 54岁、55 - 64岁、65 - 74岁和≥75岁年龄组，计算了每10万人口中72个月的每月中风发病率。我们进行了自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）分析，以研究急性缺血性中风事件的季节性存在情况及其与气候的任何关联。我们发现，任何年龄或性别组的缺血性中风发病率均无显著季节性变化。此外，在对季节性、月份和趋势进行调整后，ARIMA回归模型仅显示缺血性中风发病率与大气压力之间存在关联。我们得出结论，台湾地区不存在缺血性中风的季节性。然而，缺血性中风发病率与大气压力显著相关。
