Kiemeney L A L M, Lemmers F A M O, Verhoeven R H A, Aben K K H, Honing C, de Nooijer J, Peeters P H M, Visser O, Vlems F A
Universitair Medisch Centrum St Radboud, afd. Epidemiologie, Biostatistiek en HTA, Huispost 133 EBH, Postbus 9101, 6500 HB Nijmegen.
Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd. 2008 Oct 11;152(41):2233-41.
Calculation of valid and detailed risks of cancer from, and up to, specific ages for inhabitants of the Netherlands.
Secondary analyses of cancer incidence and mortality rates.
Gender and age-specific incidence rates of 56 different types of cancer were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Gender and age-specific mortality rates were obtained from Statistics Netherlands. Using survival charts, risks of cancer were calculated from all ages and up to all ages, in steps of 5 years. The US National Cancer Institute's software programme DevCan was used for analyses.
One out of every 2.3 newborn males (43.9%) and one out of every 2.6 newborn females (38.1%) in the Netherlands will develop cancer sometime during their life. The risk of developing cancer before the age of 80 is 35.9% for newborn males and 30.2% for newborn females. Women run the greatest risk of developing breast cancer (almost 13%). 50-year-old women have a risk of almost 3% of being diagnosed with breast cancer before the age of 60. Men have the greatest risk of a diagnosis of prostate cancer (almost 10%). The risk for a 50-year-old man of being diagnosed with prostate cancer within the subsequent 10 years however is less than 1%.
Detailed rates of risks of cancer are useful for policy issues such as decisions to implement screening programmes, for public education, and for patient counselling, as in the field of clinical genetics. The routinely reported risks for newborns developing cancer before the age of 75 lack the necessary detail for such use.
计算荷兰居民从特定年龄直至特定年龄患癌的有效且详细的风险。
对癌症发病率和死亡率进行二次分析。
从荷兰癌症登记处获取56种不同类型癌症的性别和年龄特异性发病率。从荷兰统计局获取性别和年龄特异性死亡率。使用生存图表，以5年为步长计算从所有年龄直至所有年龄的患癌风险。使用美国国家癌症研究所的软件程序DevCan进行分析。
荷兰每2.3名新生男性中有1人（43.9%）、每2.6名新生女性中有1人（38.1%）在其一生中的某个时候会患癌。新生男性在80岁前患癌的风险为35.9%，新生女性为30.2%。女性患乳腺癌的风险最高（近13%）。50岁女性在60岁前被诊断出患乳腺癌有近3%的风险。男性被诊断出前列腺癌的风险最高（近10%）。然而，一名50岁男性在随后10年内被诊断出前列腺癌的风险不到1%。
癌症风险的详细比率对于诸如实施筛查计划的决策、公众教育以及患者咨询等政策问题很有用，如在临床遗传学领域。常规报告的新生儿在75岁前患癌的风险缺乏用于此类用途的必要细节。
