Zaninotto P, Head J, Stamatakis E, Wardle H, Mindell J
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, UCL, 1-19 Torrington Place, London WC1E 7HB, UK.
J Epidemiol Community Health. 2009 Feb;63(2):140-6. doi: 10.1136/jech.2008.077305. Epub 2008 Dec 11.
This study aims to project the prevalence of adult obesity to 2012 by age groups and social class, by extrapolating the prevalence trends from 1993 to 2004. Repeated cross-sectional surveys were carried out of representative samples of the general population living in households in England conducted annually (1993 to 2004).
Participants were classified as obese if their body mass index was over 30 kg/m(2). Projections of obesity prevalence by 2012 were based on three scenarios: extrapolation of linear trend in prevalence from 1993 to 2004; acceleration (or slowing down) in rate of change based on the best fitting curve (power or exponential); and extrapolation of linear trend based on the six most recent years (1999 to 2004).
The prevalence of obesity increased significantly from 1993 to 2004 from 13.6% to 24.0% among men and from 16.9% to 24.4% among women. If obesity prevalence continues to increase at the same rate, it is projected that the prevalence of obesity in 2012 will be 32.1% (95% CI 30.4 to 34.8) in men and 31.0% (95% CI 29.0 to 33.1) in women. The projected 2012 prevalence for adults in manual social classes is higher (43%) than for adults in non-manual social classes (35%).
If recent trends in adult obesity continue, about a third of all adults (almost 13 million individuals) would be obese by 2012. Of these, around 43% are from manual social classes, thereby adding to the public health burden of obesity-related illnesses. This highlights the need for public health action to halt or reverse current trends and narrow social class inequalities in health.
本研究旨在通过推断1993年至2004年的患病率趋势，按年龄组和社会阶层预测到2012年成人肥胖症的患病率。对居住在英格兰家庭中的普通人群代表性样本进行了重复横断面调查（1993年至2004年），每年开展一次。
如果参与者的体重指数超过30kg/m²，则被归类为肥胖。到2012年肥胖症患病率的预测基于三种情况：推断1993年至2004年患病率的线性趋势；基于最佳拟合曲线（幂函数或指数函数）的变化率加速（或放缓）；以及基于最近六年（1999年至2004年）的线性趋势推断。
1993年至2004年，男性肥胖症患病率从13.6%显著增至24.0%，女性从16.9%增至24.4%。如果肥胖症患病率继续以相同速度上升，预计2012年男性肥胖症患病率将为32.1%（95%可信区间30.4至34.8），女性为31.0%（95%可信区间29.0至33.1）。体力劳动者社会阶层的成年人预计2012年患病率（43%）高于非体力劳动者社会阶层的成年人（35%）。
如果成人肥胖症的近期趋势持续下去，到2012年约三分之一的成年人（近1300万人）将肥胖。其中，约43%来自体力劳动者社会阶层，从而增加了肥胖相关疾病的公共卫生负担。这凸显了采取公共卫生行动以阻止或扭转当前趋势并缩小健康方面社会阶层不平等的必要性。
