Wing Paul, Langelier Margaret H
Center for Health Workforce Studies, University at Albany School of Public Health, Rensselaer, NY 12144, USA.
AJR Am J Roentgenol. 2009 Feb;192(2):370-8. doi: 10.2214/AJR.08.1665.
The objective of this study was to develop reliable forecasts of the future supply of radiologists and radiologic technologists practicing mammography under different assumptions about future introduction of new practitioners. In addition, this article includes basic mammography workforce statistics to provide a context for the forecasts.
The forecasts were developed using an age cohort flow model based on data provided by the American College of Radiology (ACR) on the numbers and age distribution of radiologists and on data provided by the American Society of Radiologic Technologists (ASRT) on radiologic technologists providing mammography services.
The forecasts show that the current rates of production of new mammography professionals will result in dramatic reductions in mammography professionals per woman age 40 years old and older over the next 15-20 years.
Unless the number of new mammography professionals entering practice every year increases beyond the current levels, there will be a growing gap between the supply of and demand for mammography professionals over the next two decades.
本研究的目的是在关于未来新从业者引入的不同假设下，对从事乳腺钼靶检查的放射科医生和放射技师的未来供应情况做出可靠预测。此外，本文还包括乳腺钼靶检查劳动力的基本统计数据，以为预测提供背景信息。
预测是使用年龄队列流动模型得出的，该模型基于美国放射学会（ACR）提供的关于放射科医生数量和年龄分布的数据，以及美国放射技师协会（ASRT）提供的关于提供乳腺钼靶检查服务的放射技师的数据。
预测表明，目前新乳腺钼靶检查专业人员的培养速度将导致在未来15至20年内，40岁及以上女性的乳腺钼靶检查专业人员数量大幅减少。
除非每年进入该领域的新乳腺钼靶检查专业人员数量超过当前水平，否则在未来二十年里，乳腺钼靶检查专业人员的供需差距将不断扩大。
