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具有协变量误差的贝叶斯多变量疾病映射与生态回归:伤残调整生命年和“可预防的”伤残调整生命年的贝叶斯估计

Bayesian multivariate disease mapping and ecological regression with errors in covariates: Bayesian estimation of DALYs and 'preventable' DALYs.

作者信息

Macnab Ying C

机构信息

School of Population and Public Health, Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.

出版信息

Stat Med. 2009 Apr 30;28(9):1369-85. doi: 10.1002/sim.3547.

Abstract

This paper presents Bayesian multivariate disease mapping and ecological regression models that take into account errors in covariates. Bayesian hierarchical formulations of multivariate disease models and covariate measurement models, with related methods of estimation and inference, are developed as an integral part of a Bayesian disability adjusted life years (DALYs) methodology for the analysis of multivariate disease or injury data and associated ecological risk factors and for small area DALYs estimation, inference, and mapping. The methodology facilitates the estimation of multivariate small area disease and injury rates and associated risk effects, evaluation of DALYs and 'preventable' DALYs, and identification of regions to which disease or injury prevention resources may be directed to reduce DALYs. The methodology interfaces and intersects the Bayesian disease mapping methodology and the global burden of disease framework such that the impact of disease, injury, and risk factors on population health may be evaluated to inform community health, health needs, and priority considerations for disease and injury prevention. A burden of injury study on road traffic accidents in local health areas in British Columbia, Canada, is presented as an illustrative example.

摘要

本文提出了考虑协变量误差的贝叶斯多变量疾病映射和生态回归模型。多变量疾病模型和协变量测量模型的贝叶斯层次公式,以及相关的估计和推理方法,被开发为贝叶斯残疾调整生命年(DALYs)方法的一个组成部分,用于分析多变量疾病或损伤数据以及相关的生态风险因素,以及用于小区域DALYs的估计、推理和映射。该方法有助于估计多变量小区域疾病和损伤率以及相关的风险效应,评估DALYs和“可预防的”DALYs,并确定疾病或损伤预防资源可用于减少DALYs的区域。该方法与贝叶斯疾病映射方法和全球疾病负担框架相衔接和交叉,从而可以评估疾病、损伤和风险因素对人群健康的影响,为社区健康、健康需求以及疾病和损伤预防的优先考虑提供信息。作为一个示例,本文介绍了加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省地方卫生区域的道路交通事故损伤负担研究。

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