Fuzzy rule based estimation of agricultural diffuse pollution concentration in streams.

Outflow from the agricultural fields carries diffuse pollutants like nutrients, pesticides, herbicides etc. and transports the pollutants into the nearby streams. It is a matter of serious concern for water managers and environmental researchers. The application of chemicals in the agricultural fields, and transport of these chemicals into streams are uncertain that cause complexity in reliable stream quality predictions. The chemical characteristics of applied chemical, percentage of area under the chemical application etc. are some of the main inputs that cause pollution concentration as output in streams. Each of these inputs and outputs may contain measurement errors. Fuzzy rule based model based on fuzzy sets suits to address uncertainties in inputs by incorporating overlapping membership functions for each of inputs even for limited data availability situations. In this study, the property of fuzzy sets to address the uncertainty in input-output relationship is utilized to obtain the estimate of concentrations of a herbicide, atrazine, in a stream. The data of White river basin, a part of the Mississippi river system, is used for developing the fuzzy rule based models. The performance of the developed methodology is found encouraging.