Slaymaker E, Bwanika J B, Kasamba I, Lutalo T, Maher D, Todd J
Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Sex Transm Infect. 2009 Apr;85 Suppl 1(Suppl_1):i12-9. doi: 10.1136/sti.2008.034009.
To derive the best possible estimates of trends in age at first sex (AFS) among successive cohorts of Ugandan men and women based on all the data available from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and cohort studies in Masaka and Rakai districts.
The datasets from the DHS, Masaka cohort and Rakai cohort were analysed separately. Survival analysis methods were used to estimate median AFS for men and women born in the 1950s-1980s and to compute hazard ratios for first sex, comparing later cohorts with earlier cohorts.
The DHS and Masaka data showed an increase in AFS in women in the more recent birth cohorts compared with those born before 1970, but this was less apparent in the Rakai data. Successive male cohorts in Masaka appeared first to have an increased AFS which subsequently decreased, a trend that was also apparent (but not significant) in the DHS data. Younger men in Rakai had an earlier AFS than those born before 1980.
Women in Uganda who were born after 1970 have, on average, had sex at a later age than those born earlier. For men, AFS has not changed consistently over the period in question. Differences between Masaka and Rakai may reflect socioeconomic differences. Most of the change in AFS occurred too late to have contributed to the initial decline in the incidence of HIV.
基于人口与健康调查（DHS）以及马萨卡和拉凯地区队列研究的所有可用数据，得出乌干达连续几代男性和女性首次性行为年龄（AFS）趋势的最佳估计值。
分别分析DHS、马萨卡队列和拉凯队列的数据集。采用生存分析方法估计20世纪50年代至80年代出生的男性和女性的AFS中位数，并计算首次性行为的风险比，将较晚队列与较早队列进行比较。
DHS和马萨卡的数据显示，与1970年前出生的女性相比，最近出生队列中的女性AFS有所增加，但在拉凯的数据中不太明显。马萨卡连续几代男性队列最初AFS增加，随后下降，这一趋势在DHS数据中也很明显（但不显著）。拉凯地区较年轻的男性首次性行为年龄比1980年前出生的男性更早。
1970年后出生的乌干达女性平均首次性行为年龄比早出生的女性晚。对于男性来说，在所述期间AFS并非持续变化。马萨卡和拉凯之间的差异可能反映了社会经济差异。AFS的大多数变化发生得太晚，对艾滋病毒发病率的最初下降没有起到作用。
