Shanahan T M, Overpeck J T, Anchukaitis K J, Beck J W, Cole J E, Dettman D L, Peck J A, Scholz C A, King J W
Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
Science. 2009 Apr 17;324(5925):377-80. doi: 10.1126/science.1166352.
Although persistent drought in West Africa is well documented from the instrumental record and has been primarily attributed to changing Atlantic sea surface temperatures, little is known about the length, severity, and origin of drought before the 20th century. We combined geomorphic, isotopic, and geochemical evidence from the sediments of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, to reconstruct natural variability in the African monsoon over the past three millennia. We find that intervals of severe drought lasting for periods ranging from decades to centuries are characteristic of the monsoon and are linked to natural variations in Atlantic temperatures. Thus the severe drought of recent decades is not anomalous in the context of the past three millennia, indicating that the monsoon is capable of longer and more severe future droughts.
尽管从仪器记录中可以充分证明西非存在持续干旱,且主要归因于大西洋海表温度的变化,但对于20世纪之前干旱的持续时间、严重程度和起源却知之甚少。我们结合了来自加纳博苏姆推湖沉积物的地貌、同位素和地球化学证据,以重建过去三千年来非洲季风的自然变化。我们发现,持续数十年至数百年的严重干旱期是季风的特征,并且与大西洋温度的自然变化有关。因此,近几十年来的严重干旱在过去三千年的背景下并非异常,这表明季风未来可能会出现持续时间更长、更严重的干旱。