Hodell D A, Brenner M, Curtis J H, Guilderson T
Department of Geological Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
Science. 2001 May 18;292(5520):1367-70. doi: 10.1126/science.1057759.
We analyzed lake-sediment cores from the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, to reconstruct the climate history of the region over the past 2600 years. Time series analysis of sediment proxies, which are sensitive to the changing ratio of evaporation to precipitation (oxygen isotopes and gypsum precipitation), reveal a recurrent pattern of drought with a dominant periodicity of 208 years. This cycle is similar to the documented 206-year period in records of cosmogenic nuclide production (carbon-14 and beryllium-10) that is thought to reflect variations in solar activity. We conclude that a significant component of century-scale variability in Yucatan droughts is explained by solar forcing. Furthermore, some of the maxima in the 208-year drought cycle correspond with discontinuities in Maya cultural evolution, suggesting that the Maya were affected by these bicentennial oscillations in precipitation.
我们分析了来自墨西哥尤卡坦半岛的湖底沉积物岩芯，以重建该地区过去2600年的气候历史。对沉积物指标进行时间序列分析，这些指标对蒸发与降水的变化比率（氧同位素和石膏沉淀）敏感，结果揭示了干旱的反复出现模式，其主导周期为208年。这个周期与宇宙成因核素产生记录（碳 - 14和铍 - 10）中记录的206年周期相似，人们认为该周期反映了太阳活动的变化。我们得出结论，尤卡坦干旱世纪尺度变化的一个重要组成部分是由太阳强迫造成的。此外，208年干旱周期中的一些最大值与玛雅文化演变的间断相对应，这表明玛雅人受到了这些每两百年一次的降水振荡的影响。
