Bamber Jonathan L, Riva Riccardo E M, Vermeersen Bert L A, LeBrocq Anne M
Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.
Science. 2009 May 15;324(5929):901-3. doi: 10.1126/science.1169335.
Theory has suggested that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet may be inherently unstable. Recent observations lend weight to this hypothesis. We reassess the potential contribution to eustatic and regional sea level from a rapid collapse of the ice sheet and find that previous assessments have substantially overestimated its likely primary contribution. We obtain a value for the global, eustatic sea-level rise contribution of about 3.3 meters, with important regional variations. The maximum increase is concentrated along the Pacific and Atlantic seaboard of the United States, where the value is about 25% greater than the global mean, even for the case of a partial collapse.
理论表明,西南极冰盖可能本质上就不稳定。最近的观测结果支持了这一假说。我们重新评估了冰盖快速崩塌对海平面上升和区域海平面的潜在贡献,发现之前的评估大幅高估了其可能的主要贡献。我们得出,冰盖崩塌对全球海平面上升的贡献约为3.3米,且存在重要的区域差异。最大增幅集中在美国太平洋和大西洋沿岸,即使在部分崩塌的情况下,该区域的增幅也比全球平均值高出约25%。