Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy.
J Theor Biol. 2009 Sep 7;260(1):31-40. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.04.029. Epub 2009 May 14.
We study how spontaneous reduction in the number of contacts could develop, as a defensive response, during an epidemic and affect the course of infection events. A model is proposed which couples an SIR model with selection of behaviours driven by imitation dynamics. Therefore, infection transmission and population behaviour become dynamical variables that influence each other. In particular, time scales of behavioural changes and epidemic transmission can be different. We provide a full qualitative characterization of the solutions when the dynamics of behavioural changes is either much faster or much slower than that of epidemic transmission. The model accounts for multiple outbreaks occurring within the same epidemic episode. Moreover, the model can explain "asymmetric waves", i.e., infection waves whose rising and decaying phases differ in slope. Finally, we prove that introduction of behavioural dynamics results in the reduction of the final attack rate.
我们研究了在传染病期间，接触人数的自发减少如何作为一种防御反应而出现，并影响感染事件的进程。提出了一个模型，该模型将 SIR 模型与模仿动力学驱动的行为选择耦合在一起。因此，感染传播和人口行为成为相互影响的动态变量。特别是，行为变化和传染病传播的时间尺度可能不同。当行为变化的动力学比传染病传播的动力学快得多或慢得多时，我们提供了对解决方案的完整定性描述。该模型考虑了在同一传染病发作期间发生的多次暴发。此外，该模型可以解释“不对称波”，即上升和下降阶段斜率不同的感染波。最后，我们证明引入行为动力学会降低最终的攻击率。
