The uncertainty in burn prediction as a result of variable skin parameters: an experimental evaluation of burn-protective outfits.

The reliable prediction of burns, resulting from exposure to elevated levels of heat, received early interest in physiology and later on in various branches of applied research and engineering. In this paper we address the problem of estimating the extent of skin burns in the context of a quantitative assessment of protective garments from the statistical point of view. We rely on the experimental platform built around the thermal mannequin equipped with an array of thermal sensors. The dressed mannequin is first exposed to the flash fire, in order to determine the incident heat flux on the mannequin's surface. This information is then used in a heat-transfer model of the skin, the result of which is an estimate of the degree of injury that would occur to a human exposed to the same flame conditions. The methods used so far, employed a deterministic skin model defined with the nominal thermal and geometrical parameters. However, skin properties differ from human to human and from one location on the body to another; this results in different configurations of the areas affected by injuries. In this paper we apply a Monte-Carlo approach to estimate the dispersion of the burns over a broad population of humans. The results obtained from experimental data records indicate that the variations in the dermis are the most decisive for increased dispersions at the estimated second- and third-degree burn areas.