Haig Brian D
Department of Psychology, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zeland.
Am J Psychol. 2009 Summer;122(2):219-34.
Explanatory theories in psychology usually are evaluated by using the hypothetico-deductive method and testing them for their predictive adequacy. This article brings the alternative idea of inference to the best explanation to the attention of psychologists and suggests that it provides them with a set of methodological resources for evaluating the explanatory worth of their theories. I present 3 characterizations of the notion of inference to the best explanation. The strengths and limitations of inference to the best explanation are then considered, as is its relationship to the hypothetico-deductive and Bayesian approaches to theory appraisal. Thereafter, I suggest a proper scope for inference to the best explanation as a scientific method, make recommendations for using the approach in psychology, and recommend its adoption in the appraisal of psychological theories.
心理学中的解释性理论通常通过假设演绎法进行评估，并检验其预测的充分性。本文将最佳解释推理这一替代观点引入心理学家的关注范围，并表明它为他们提供了一套评估理论解释价值的方法论资源。我提出了最佳解释推理概念的三种表征。然后考虑了最佳解释推理的优点和局限性，以及它与理论评估的假设演绎法和贝叶斯方法的关系。此后，我提出了最佳解释推理作为一种科学方法的适当范围，为在心理学中使用该方法提出建议，并建议在心理学理论评估中采用该方法。
