Research Department, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20431, USA.
J Health Econ. 2009 Jul;28(4):855-72. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2009.05.004. Epub 2009 Jun 13.
This paper examines the relationship between health aid and infant mortality, using data from 118 countries between 1973 and 2004. Health aid has a beneficial and statistically significant effect on infant mortality: doubling per capita health aid is associated with a 2 percent reduction in the infant mortality rate. For the average country, this implies that increasing per capita health aid by US$1.60 per year is associated with 1.5 fewer infant deaths per thousand births. The estimated effect is small, relative to the 2015 target envisioned by the Millennium Development Goals. It implies that achieving the MDG target through additional health aid alone would require a roughly 15-fold increase in current levels of aid.
本文利用 1973 年至 2004 年间 118 个国家的数据，考察了卫生援助与婴儿死亡率之间的关系。卫生援助对婴儿死亡率有积极的、统计上显著的影响：人均卫生援助增加一倍，婴儿死亡率就会降低 2%。对于平均水平的国家来说，这意味着每年人均卫生援助增加 1.60 美元，每千例出生就会减少 1.5 例婴儿死亡。相对于千年发展目标所设想的 2015 年目标而言，这一估计效果很小。这意味着仅通过额外的卫生援助来实现千年发展目标，就需要将目前的援助水平提高约 15 倍。
