Department of Geosciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1482, USA.
Conserv Biol. 2010 Feb;24(1):151-61. doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01296.x. Epub 2009 Jul 15.
Conservation of ecological processes and biodiversity may require development of a conservation system consisting of protected "cores" surrounded by "buffer zones" that effectively expand and connect the cores. Nevertheless, residential development near protected areas may threaten de facto protected areas and hinder development of an official conservation system in the United States. We identified potential conservation cores based on existing protected areas, and using a spatially explicit model of housing densities, we quantified how residential development has altered the structural context around cores nationally from 1970 to 2000 and forecasted changes from 2000 to 2030. We found that residential housing development has likely occurred preferentially near some cores, and if encroachment near cores continues at projected rates, the amount of buffer zone will have been reduced by a total of 12% by 2030, with much of this change occurring directly at core edges. Furthermore, development will have reduced the average connectedness (valence) of cores by 6% from 1970 to 2030. Although patterns of encroachment roughly increased west to east, our results painted a more complex picture of the difficulties that would be faced if establishment of an official conservation system was ever attempted. At a minimum, prioritizing future conservation action must consider adjacent land uses, and a key conservation strategy will be to work cooperatively across land-ownership boundaries, particularly for smaller protected areas, which will tend to dominate future conservation activities.
保护生态过程和生物多样性可能需要开发一个保护系统，该系统由受保护的“核心区”组成，周围环绕着“缓冲区”，这些缓冲区可以有效地扩大和连接核心区。然而，保护区附近的住宅开发可能会威胁到事实上的保护区，并阻碍美国正式保护系统的发展。我们根据现有的保护区确定了潜在的保护核心区，并使用住房密度的空间显式模型，量化了 1970 年至 2000 年期间住宅开发如何改变了全国核心区周围的结构背景，并预测了 2000 年至 2030 年的变化。我们发现，住宅住房开发可能已经优先发生在一些核心区附近，如果核心区附近的侵占继续按照预测的速度进行，到 2030 年，缓冲区的总面积将减少 12%，其中大部分变化直接发生在核心区边缘。此外，发展将使核心区的平均连通性（度）从 1970 年到 2030 年减少 6%。尽管侵占模式大致从西向东增加，但我们的结果描绘了一个更复杂的画面，即如果试图建立一个正式的保护系统，将会面临困难。至少，优先考虑未来的保护行动必须考虑相邻的土地用途，而一个关键的保护策略将是在土地所有权边界上进行合作，特别是对于较小的保护区，它们将主导未来的保护活动。
