Marshall Roger J
Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, University of Auckland, New Zealand.
J Clin Epidemiol. 2009 Sep;62(9):998-1000. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2009.05.004.
To show how levels of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and occurrence of CVD can be graphically represented.
Methodological and using graphics to illustrate CVD risk prediction. Uses data on CVD risk and outcomes in three studies from New Zealand, China, and Scotland with levels of risk determined by multivariate risk scores.
The diagrams clearly show that risk levels and actual CVD occurrence do not often occur together, many individuals at high risk do not experience a CVD event and conversely, many CVD events do not occur in the labeled high risk.
Scaled rectangles can easily be formed to show how modeled predicted risk levels and actual occurrence of CVD coincide. Poor discrimination is well illustrated.
展示心血管疾病（CVD）风险水平和CVD发生情况如何以图形方式呈现。
方法学研究，并使用图形来说明CVD风险预测。使用来自新西兰、中国和苏格兰的三项研究中的CVD风险和结果数据，风险水平由多变量风险评分确定。
图表清楚地表明，风险水平和实际CVD发生情况并不常同时出现，许多高风险个体未经历CVD事件，相反，许多CVD事件并非发生在标记的高风险人群中。
可以轻松形成比例矩形来展示建模预测的风险水平与CVD实际发生情况的吻合程度。很好地说明了辨别力较差的情况。
