Performance Enhancement and Talent Identification Section, ASPIRE, Academy for Sports Excellence, Doha, Qatar.
J Strength Cond Res. 2010 Jan;24(1):135-9. doi: 10.1519/JSC.0b013e3181a61a3a.
No previous study has examined the reliability of competitive performance in a subjective (i.e., externally judged) sport such as surfboard riding (i.e., surfing). This reliability is important for the athletes' competitive success prospects and for their support crew interested in strategies or factors that might influence performance. We have therefore determined the typical variation in competitive performance of elite surfers. We obtained official scores (points) for the 11 competitions of the World Championship Tour (WCT). We analyzed 46 male surfers who entered 6 or more such events held in 1 competitive season. To further explore the variability of competitive performance, a separate analysis was performed on official performance points for 182 male surfers who competed on 3 consecutive events within the World Qualifying Series (WQS). Our measure of variability was the typical error (i.e., within-subject variation) expressed as a Cohen effect size (ES) of log-transformed final scores obtained for the surfers after finishing each event. Performance scores in surfing competition showed moderate to large variability. For the 11 WCT events and the 3 WQS events, the ES ranged from 0.72 to 1.01 (n = 46) and from 0.61 to 1.04 (n = 182), respectively. In conclusion, surfers showed much larger variability in performance than previously reported for sports such as running, swimming, or weightlifting. Thus, competition outcomes are largely unpredictable. Considering this large variability in competitive performance, a practitioner monitoring an individual athlete will have little chances of noticing small to moderate changes in competitive performance between consecutive events. Several competitions in a row appear to be needed for tracking the smallest worthwhile performance changes in competition scores as a result of training or other interventions.
先前的研究尚未考察过在主观（即外部评判）运动中，如冲浪（即 surfing）的竞技表现的可靠性。这种可靠性对于运动员的竞技成功前景以及对他们感兴趣的策略或影响表现的因素的支持人员都很重要。因此，我们确定了精英冲浪者的竞技表现的典型变化。我们获得了世界职业冲浪巡回赛（WCT）11 项比赛的官方得分（点）。我们分析了 46 名参加过 1 个竞技赛季中 6 次或更多次此类赛事的男性冲浪者。为了进一步探讨竞技表现的可变性，我们对在世界资格系列赛（WQS）中连续参加 3 次比赛的 182 名男性冲浪者的官方表现得分进行了单独分析。我们的可变性衡量标准是每个事件结束后冲浪者获得的对数转换最终得分的典型误差（即个体内变异），表示为 Cohen 效应大小（ES）。冲浪比赛中的表现得分显示出中等至较大的可变性。对于 11 项 WCT 赛事和 3 项 WQS 赛事，ES 范围分别为 0.72 至 1.01（n = 46）和 0.61 至 1.04（n = 182）。总之，冲浪者的表现变化比以前报道的跑步、游泳或举重等运动要大得多。因此，比赛结果在很大程度上是不可预测的。考虑到竞技表现的这种大的可变性，监测个体运动员的从业者将几乎没有机会注意到连续比赛中竞技表现的小到中等变化。需要连续进行几次比赛，以便跟踪训练或其他干预措施对比赛成绩的最小有价值的表现变化。
