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即使没有我们的偏见，预后的前景也是严峻的。

Even without our biases, the outlook for prognostication is grim.

机构信息

University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

出版信息

Crit Care. 2009;13(4):168. doi: 10.1186/cc7944. Epub 2009 Jul 20.

DOI:10.1186/cc7944
PMID:19664178
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2750147/
Abstract

Physicians are biased and imprecise, but we are better at predicting mortality in the intensive care unit than any mathematical model currently available. But even if we were flawless prognosticators, we would still be left with the larger ethical problem of what to do with prognostic information. In order to translate prognosis into recommendation, we need to know about patient values.

摘要

医生是有偏见和不精确的，但我们在预测重症监护病房的死亡率方面比任何现有的数学模型都要好。但即使我们是完美的预后预测者，我们仍然会面临更大的伦理问题，即如何处理预后信息。为了将预后转化为建议，我们需要了解患者的价值观。

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Results from the national sepsis practice survey: predictions about mortality and morbidity and recommendations for limitation of care orders.全国脓毒症实践调查结果：关于死亡率和发病率的预测以及限制医疗指令的建议
Crit Care. 2009;13(3):R96. doi: 10.1186/cc7926. Epub 2009 Jun 23.
2
Recommendations for end-of-life care in the intensive care unit: a consensus statement by the American College [corrected] of Critical Care Medicine.重症监护病房临终关怀建议：美国危重病医学会共识声明[已修正]
Crit Care Med. 2008 Mar;36(3):953-63. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0B013E3181659096.
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Mortality predictions in the intensive care unit: comparing physicians with scoring systems.重症监护病房的死亡率预测：医生与评分系统的比较
Crit Care Med. 2006 Mar;34(3):878-85. doi: 10.1097/01.CCM.0000201881.58644.41.
4
Performance of prognostic models in critically ill cancer patients - a review.危重症癌症患者预后模型的性能——综述
Crit Care. 2005 Aug;9(4):R458-63. doi: 10.1186/cc3765. Epub 2005 Jul 8.
5
Intensive care decision making in the seriously ill and elderly.重症患者及老年患者的重症监护决策
Crit Care Med. 2004 Mar;32(3):649-54. doi: 10.1097/01.ccm.0000115636.29294.2f.
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The rise and fall of the futility movement.
N Engl J Med. 2000 Jul 27;343(4):293-6. doi: 10.1056/NEJM200007273430411.
7
Preferences for cardiopulmonary resuscitation: physician-patient agreement and hospital resource use. The SUPPORT Investigators.心肺复苏的偏好：医患共识与医院资源利用。支持研究组。
J Gen Intern Med. 1995 Apr;10(4):179-86. doi: 10.1007/BF02600252.
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