University of Chicago, School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
Health Aff (Millwood). 2009 Sep-Oct;28(5):w978-90. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.28.5.w978. Epub 2009 Sep 1.
Complications from chronic illnesses often do not emerge for many years. Current federal cost projection methods are constrained by ten-year cost estimates, which capture increases in near-term intervention costs but not changes in long-term costs. Current methods also cannot easily capture the cost implications of changes in disease progression. Type 2 diabetes is a prime example of a chronic illness with long-term health and cost consequences. We present results from an epidemiologically based model that projects federal costs for diabetes under alternative policies, and we discuss the potential changes in the federal budget process needed to capture the full impact of these interventions.
慢性病的并发症通常要多年后才会显现。目前的联邦成本预测方法受到十年成本估算的限制，这些方法虽然可以捕捉到近期干预成本的增加，但无法反映长期成本的变化。此外，这些方法也不容易捕捉到疾病进展变化所带来的成本影响。2 型糖尿病就是一个具有长期健康和成本后果的慢性病的典型例子。我们提出了一个基于流行病学的模型的结果，该模型针对不同政策下的糖尿病联邦成本进行了预测，并讨论了在联邦预算过程中需要进行的潜在改变，以充分捕捉这些干预措施的影响。
