Kaufman Darrell S, Schneider David P, McKay Nicholas P, Ammann Caspar M, Bradley Raymond S, Briffa Keith R, Miller Gifford H, Otto-Bliesner Bette L, Overpeck Jonathan T, Vinther Bo M
School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA.
Science. 2009 Sep 4;325(5945):1236-9. doi: 10.1126/science.1173983.
The temperature history of the first millennium C.E. is sparsely documented, especially in the Arctic. We present a synthesis of decadally resolved proxy temperature records from poleward of 60 degrees N covering the past 2000 years, which indicates that a pervasive cooling in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age. A 2000-year transient climate simulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long-term trend was caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction in summer insolation. The cooling trend was reversed during the 20th century, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000.
公元第一个千年的温度历史记录稀少,尤其是在北极地区。我们综合了过去2000年北纬60度以北地区年代际分辨率的温度代用记录,结果表明,2000年前开始的普遍降温一直持续到中世纪并进入小冰期。使用社区气候系统模型进行的2000年瞬态气候模拟显示,其对日照变化的温度敏感性与我们的代用重建结果相同,这支持了以下推断:这种长期趋势是由轨道驱动的夏季日照量稳步减少所致。在20世纪,降温趋势发生逆转,在我们2000年的重建记录中,五个最温暖的十年中有四个出现在1950年至2000年之间。