Guastello Stephen J, Myers Adam
Department of Psychology, Marquette University, Milwaukee WI, 53201-1881, USA.
Nonlinear Dynamics Psychol Life Sci. 2009 Oct;13(4):445-66.
This article revisits a long-standing theoretical issue as to whether a "natural rate" of unemployment exists in the sense of an exogenously driven fixed-point Walrasian equilibrium or attractor, or whether more complex dynamics such as hysteresis or chaos characterize an endogenous dynamical process instead. The same questions are posed regarding a possible natural rate of inflation along with an investigation of the actual relationship between inflation and unemployment for which extent theories differ. Time series of unemployment and inflation for US data - were analyzed using the exponential model series and nonlinear regression for capturing Lyapunov exponents and transfer effects from other variables. The best explanation for unemployment was that it is a chaotic variable that is driven in part by inflation. The best explanation for inflation is that it is also a chaotic variable driven in part by unemployment and the prices of treasury bills. Estimates of attractors' epicenters were calculated in lieu of classical natural rates.
本文重新审视了一个长期存在的理论问题，即是否存在一种外生驱动的固定点瓦尔拉斯均衡或吸引子意义上的失业“自然率”，或者更复杂的动态过程，如滞后或混沌，是否反而表征了一个内生动态过程。关于可能的通货膨胀自然率也提出了同样的问题，同时还对通货膨胀与失业之间的实际关系进行了研究，不同理论对此关系的阐述程度有所不同。利用指数模型序列和非线性回归分析了美国数据中的失业和通货膨胀时间序列，以获取李雅普诺夫指数以及其他变量的转移效应。对失业的最佳解释是，它是一个混沌变量，部分受通货膨胀驱动。对通货膨胀的最佳解释是，它也是一个混沌变量，部分受失业和国债价格驱动。计算了吸引子中心的估计值，以替代经典的自然率。
