Department of Digestive and Life-Style Related Diseases, Kagoshima University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, 8-35-1 Sakuragaoka, Kagoshima 890-8520, Japan.
J Cardiol. 2009 Oct;54(2):231-7. doi: 10.1016/j.jjcc.2009.05.011. Epub 2009 Jun 26.
The aim of this study was to clarify the relationship between onset of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and weather conditions, to determine whether days in which AMI onset is likely can be predicted.
Of the 929 patients admitted to our hospitals in Kagoshima prefecture with AMI, subjects comprised 611 patients. Days of frequent onset (F-days) were defined as days with > or = 3 patients/day admitted for AMI, with days of non-frequent onset (N-days) defined as days with < 3 patients/day. Meteorological factors were measured, and daily differences in all parameters and intraday temperature differences on the onset day, and 1 and 2 days before onset were calculated. F-days were significantly associated with intraday temperature differences on the onset day (10.3 degrees C vs. 7.9 degrees C, p=0.005), 1 day before onset (10.7 degrees C vs. 7.9 degrees C, p=0.002), and 2 days before onset (11.3 degrees C vs. 7.9 degrees C, p=0.0001). A cutoff intraday temperature difference of > or = 9.4 degrees C on 1 and 2 days before onset was predictive of F-days with 89% sensitivity and 87% specificity.
Intraday temperature differences offer a powerful predictor of F-days. Onset of AMI can be predicted based on weather conditions over the preceding 1-2 days.
本研究旨在阐明急性心肌梗死（AMI）发病与天气状况的关系，确定是否可以预测 AMI 发病的可能日期。
在鹿儿岛县我院收治的 929 例 AMI 患者中，纳入 611 例患者。频发发病日（F-日）定义为每天有≥3 例 AMI 患者入院，非频发发病日（N-日）定义为每天<3 例 AMI 患者入院。测量气象因素，并计算所有参数的日差异和发病日、发病前 1 天和前 2 天的日内温差。F-日与发病日的日内温差（10.3°C 与 7.9°C，p=0.005）、发病前 1 天的日内温差（10.7°C 与 7.9°C，p=0.002）和发病前 2 天的日内温差（11.3°C 与 7.9°C，p=0.0001）显著相关。发病前 1 天和 2 天的日内温差>或=9.4°C 是 F-日的预测指标，其敏感性为 89%，特异性为 87%。
日内温差是 F-日的有力预测指标。基于发病前 1-2 天的天气条件，可以预测 AMI 的发病。
