VanDerhei Jack, Holden Sarah, Alonso Luis
Employee Benefit Research Institute, Washington, DC 20005-4051, USA.
EBRI Issue Brief. 2009 Oct(335):1-65.
Because 401(k) balances can fluctuate with market returns from year to year, meaningful analysis of 401(k) plans must examine how participants' accounts have performed over the long term. Looking at consistent participants in the EBRI/ICI 401(k) database over the five-year period from 2003 to 2008 (which included one of the worst bear markets for stocks since the Great Depression), the study found: After rising in 2003 and for the next four consecutive years, the average 401(k) retirement account fell 24.3 percent in 2008. The average 401(k) account balance moved up and down with stock market performance, but over the entire five-year time period increased at an average annual growth rate of 7.2 percent, attaining $86,513 at year-end 2008. The median (mid-point) 401(k) account balance increased at an average annual growth rate of 11.4 percent over the 2003-2008 period to $43,700 at year-end 2008. THE BULK OF 401(K) ASSETS CONTINUED TO BE INVESTED IN STOCKS. On average, at year-end 2008, 56 percent of 401(k) participants' assets were invested in equity securities through equity funds, the equity portion of balanced funds, and company stock. Forty-one percent was in fixed-income securities such as stable-value investments and bond and money market funds. THREE-QUARTERS OF 401(K) PLANS INCLUDED LIFECYCLE FUNDS IN THEIR INVESTMENT LINEUP AT YEAR-END 2008. At year-end 2008, nearly 7 percent of the assets in the EBRI/ICI 401(k) database were invested in lifecycle funds and 31 percent of 401(k) participants held lifecycle funds. Also known as "target-date" funds, they are designed to simplify investing and automate account rebalancing. NEW EMPLOYEES CONTINUED TO USE BALANCED FUNDS, INCLUDING LIFECYCLE FUNDS. Across all age groups, more new or recent hires invested their 401(k) assets in balanced funds, including lifecycle funds. At year-end 2008, 36 percent of the account balances of recently hired participants in their 20s were invested in balanced funds, compared with 28 percent in 2007, and about 7 percent in 1998. At year-end 2008, almost 23 percent of the account balances of recently hired participants in their 20s were invested in lifecycle funds, compared with almost 19 percent at year-end 2007. 401(K) PARTICIPANTS CONTINUED TO SEEK DIVERSIFICATION OF THEIR INVESTMENTS. The share of 401(k) accounts invested in company stock continued to shrink, falling by nearly 1 percentage point (to 9.7 percent) in 2008. That continued a steady decline that started in 1999. Recently hired 401(k) participants contributed to this trend: they were less likely to hold employer stock. PARTICIPANTS' 401(K) LOAN ACTIVITY WAS STABLE. In 2008, 18 percent of all 401(k) participants eligible for loans had a loan outstanding against their 401(k) account, the same percentage as at year-end 2007 and year-end 2006. Loans outstanding amounted to 16 percent of the remaining account balance, on average, at year-end 2008; this is similar to the year-end 2002 level.
由于401(k)计划的资产余额会随市场回报逐年波动，因此对401(k)计划进行有意义的分析必须考察参与者账户的长期表现。查看2003年至2008年这五年期间员工福利研究协会（EBRI）/投资公司协会（ICI）401(k)数据库中的持续参与者（这期间包括自大萧条以来最严重的熊市之一），该研究发现：2003年及随后连续四年上升后，401(k)退休账户平均余额在2008年下降了24.3%。401(k)账户平均余额随股票市场表现上下波动，但在整个五年期间以7.2%的年均增长率增长，到2008年底达到86,513美元。401(k)账户余额中位数在2003 - 2008年期间以11.4%的年均增长率增长，到2008年底达到43,700美元。401(k)计划的大部分资产继续投资于股票。2008年底，平均而言，401(k)计划参与者56%的资产通过股票基金、平衡基金的股票部分以及公司股票投资于权益证券。41%投资于固定收益证券，如稳定价值投资以及债券和货币市场基金。2008年底，四分之三的401(k)计划在其投资组合中包含生命周期基金。2008年底，EBRI/ICI 401(k)数据库中近7%的资产投资于生命周期基金，31%的401(k)计划参与者持有生命周期基金。生命周期基金也被称为“目标日期”基金，旨在简化投资并自动进行账户再平衡。新员工继续使用平衡基金，包括生命周期基金。在所有年龄组中，更多新入职或近期入职的员工将其401(k)资产投资于平衡基金，包括生命周期基金。2008年底，20多岁近期入职参与者账户余额的36%投资于平衡基金，相比之下2007年为28%，1998年约为7%。2008年底，20多岁近期入职参与者账户余额近23%投资于生命周期基金，相比2007年底近19%有所上升。401(k)计划参与者继续寻求投资多元化。投资于公司股票的401(k)账户比例持续下降，2008年下降了近1个百分点（降至9.7%）。这延续了自1999年开始的稳步下降趋势。近期入职的401(k)计划参与者推动了这一趋势：他们持有雇主股票的可能性较小。参与者的401(k)贷款活动稳定。2008年，所有符合贷款条件的401(k)计划参与者中有18%的人有401(k)账户未偿还贷款，这一比例与2007年底和2006年底相同。2008年底，未偿还贷款平均占剩余账户余额的16%；这与2002年底的水平相近。
