Section of Gynecologic Oncology, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
Am J Obstet Gynecol. 2010 Feb;202(2):174.e1-7. doi: 10.1016/j.ajog.2009.09.028. Epub 2009 Nov 20.
OBJECTIVE: On the basis of outcome data from concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) for locally advanced cervical squamous cell carcinoma, the authors developed a nomogram for predicting survival outcome. STUDY DESIGN: Two hundred fifty-one eligible patients with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage IIB-IVA squamous cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix who underwent CCRT were included for the construction of the nomogram. Predictor variables included age, serum squamous cell carcinoma antigen, tumor size, parametrium invasion, hydronephrosis, bladder/rectum invasion, and lymph node metastases. Internal validation of the nomogram was performed. RESULTS: A nomogram for predicting the 5 year overall survival for these patients was constructed on the basis of a Cox regression model from 7 parameters. The concordance index was 0.69. CONCLUSION: This nomogram is a predictive tool, upon external validation, that can be used to counsel patients in predicting outcomes. The discriminatory ability of the nomogram indicates that this population should not be considered homogeneous with respect to risk of death.
目的:基于同期放化疗治疗局部晚期宫颈鳞状细胞癌的结果数据,作者开发了一种预测生存结局的列线图。
研究设计:本研究纳入了 251 例符合条件的国际妇产科联合会(FIGO)分期为 IIB-IVA 期宫颈鳞状细胞癌患者,这些患者接受了同期放化疗。用于构建列线图的预测变量包括年龄、血清鳞状细胞癌抗原、肿瘤大小、宫旁侵犯、肾积水、膀胱/直肠侵犯和淋巴结转移。对列线图进行了内部验证。
结果:基于 7 个参数的 Cox 回归模型,为这些患者构建了预测 5 年总生存率的列线图。一致性指数为 0.69。
结论:该列线图是一种预测工具,经过外部验证后,可以用于向患者提供预后预测。该列线图的判别能力表明,对于死亡风险而言,该人群不应被视为同质人群。
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