The School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, NSW 2052, Australia.
Epidemiol Infect. 2010 Jun;138(6):836-42. doi: 10.1017/S095026880999118X. Epub 2009 Nov 27.
This study aimed to compare systematically approaches to estimating influenza-attributable mortality in older Australians. Using monthly age-specific death data together with viral surveillance counts for influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, we explored two of the most frequently used methods of estimating excess influenza-attributable disease: Poisson and Serfling regression models. These approaches produced consistent age and temporal patterns in estimates of influenza-attributable mortality in older Australians but some variation in the magnitude of the disease burden. Of Australians aged >50 years, average annual estimated influenza-attributable deaths (all cause) ranged from 2314 to 3457 for the Serfling and Poisson regression models, respectively. The excess influenza-attributable disease burden was substantial under all approaches.
本研究旨在系统比较评估澳大利亚老年人流感相关死亡率的方法。我们使用每月特定年龄的死亡数据以及流感和呼吸道合胞病毒的病毒监测计数，探索了两种最常用于估计超额流感相关疾病的方法：泊松和塞尔夫林回归模型。这些方法在估计澳大利亚老年人流感相关死亡率方面产生了一致的年龄和时间模式，但疾病负担的大小存在一些差异。在塞尔夫林和泊松回归模型中，年龄大于 50 岁的澳大利亚人每年平均估计的流感相关死亡人数（所有原因）分别为 2314 至 3457 人。所有方法都表明，超额流感相关疾病负担很大。
