Holtgrave D R
Department of Health, Behavior & Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 624 N Broadway, Suite 280, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
Int J STD AIDS. 2009 Dec;20(12):876-8. doi: 10.1258/ijsa.2009.009025.
Estimates of global and regional HIV incidence and prevalence are helpful for gauging the state of the epidemic. However, they do not contain as much information as the HIV transmission rate for judging the potential speed of HIV spread. The HIV transmission rate can be defined as follows: for every 100 persons living with HIV, the number of HIV infections transmitted to seronegative partners in one year. Here, we estimate the transmission rate for the global epidemic for the years 2001 and 2007, and for 10 major international regions for the year 2007. The transmission rate is calculated as incidence divided by prevalence, and the quotient then multiplied by 100. Previously published and publicly available, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimates of HIV incidence and prevalence at the global and regional levels were utilized. Between 2001 and 2007, the global HIV transmission rate dropped from 10.2 to 8.2, a decrease of 19.6% in six years time. The regional estimates for 2007 ranged from 3.7 in Western and Central Europe, to 10.5 in the Middle East and Northern Africa, to 17.6 in Oceania. The global transmission rate for 2007 of 8.2 indicates that 91.8% or more of persons living with HIV are not transmitting to other persons in a given year. The 19.6% decrease in HIV transmission rate between 2001 and 2007 appears to indicate some success in global HIV prevention efforts. The range of regional estimates helps to identify areas with the potential for rapidly growing epidemics, even if the raw numbers of new infections and prevalence are low. I believe the transmission rate to be a useful statistic and recommend its further adoption.
全球及区域艾滋病毒发病率和流行率的估计数有助于衡量疫情状况。然而，就判断艾滋病毒传播的潜在速度而言，它们所包含的信息不如艾滋病毒传播率多。艾滋病毒传播率可定义如下：每100名艾滋病毒感染者中，一年内传播给血清学阴性伴侣的艾滋病毒感染人数。在此，我们估计了2001年和2007年全球疫情的传播率，以及2007年10个主要国际区域的传播率。传播率的计算方法是发病率除以流行率，然后将商乘以100。我们利用了联合国艾滋病毒/艾滋病联合规划署此前公布的全球和区域层面艾滋病毒发病率和流行率的公开估计数。2001年至2007年期间，全球艾滋病毒传播率从10.2降至8.2，六年内下降了19.6%。2007年的区域估计数从西欧和中欧的3.7到中东和北非的10.5，再到大洋洲的17.6不等。2007年全球8.2的传播率表明，在特定年份，91.8%或更多的艾滋病毒感染者没有将病毒传播给其他人。2001年至2007年艾滋病毒传播率下降19.6%似乎表明全球艾滋病毒预防工作取得了一些成功。区域估计数的范围有助于确定那些即使新感染和流行率的原始数字较低但仍有可能迅速增长疫情的地区。我认为传播率是一个有用的统计数据，并建议进一步采用它。
