Holtgrave David R, Hall H Irene, Prejean Joseph
Department of Health, Behavior & Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
Open AIDS J. 2012;6:26-8. doi: 10.2174/1874613601206010026. Epub 2012 Mar 30.
National HIV incidence for a given year x [I(x)] equals prevalence [P(x)] times the transmission rate [T(x)]. Or, simply rearranging the terms, T(x) = [I(x)/P(x)]*100 (where T(x) is the number of HIV transmissions per 100 persons living with HIV in a given year). The transmission rate is an underutilized measure of the speed at which the epidemic is spreading. Here, we utilize recently updated information about HIV incidence and prevalence in the U.S. to estimate the national HIV transmission rate for 2006 through 2008, and present a novel method to express the level of uncertainty in these estimates. Transmission rate estimates for 2006 through 2008 are as follows (respectively): 4.39 (4.01 to 4.73); 4.90 (4.49 to 5.28); and 4.06 (3.70 to 4.38). Although there are methodological challenges inherent in making these estimates, they do give some indications that the U.S. HIV transmission rate is at a historically low level.
给定年份x的全国艾滋病毒发病率[I(x)]等于患病率[P(x)]乘以传播率[T(x)]。或者，简单地重新排列这些项，T(x)=[I(x)/P(x)]*100（其中T(x)是给定年份每100名艾滋病毒感染者中的艾滋病毒传播数）。传播率是一种未得到充分利用的衡量该流行病传播速度的指标。在此，我们利用美国最近更新的关于艾滋病毒发病率和患病率的信息来估计2006年至2008年的全国艾滋病毒传播率，并提出一种新方法来表示这些估计值中的不确定性水平。2006年至2008年的传播率估计如下（分别）：4.39（4.01至4.73）；4.90（4.49至5.28）；以及4.06（3.70至4.38）。尽管进行这些估计存在固有的方法学挑战，但它们确实给出了一些迹象，表明美国艾滋病毒传播率处于历史较低水平。
