[Estimation and forecast of volatile organic compounds emitted from paint uses in China].

Based on the current consumptions and forecast consumptions of paints in China, using the volatile organic compounds (VOC) contents of paints calculated as emission factors, an emission inventory model was established to calculate provincial, sector-specific, and species-specific VOC emissions during 2005-2020. The results indicated that the VOC amount emitted from paint use was 1883 kt in 2005, of which aromatics, alcohol compounds, ester compounds, ether compounds and ketone compounds were the main species. The maximum incremental reactivity (MIR,O3/VOC) of VOC emitted in 2005 was about 3.6 g/kg, and the toxic VOC accounted for 31% of the total in weight. The VOC emissions would increase to 5673 kt in 2020 if there were no further control policies and actions taken. Therefore, it is essential to implement the VOC emission control from paint uses as soon as possible. Two control scenarios were developed to evaluate the potential of VOC emission reductions. In 2020, VOC emissions from paint uses might be controlled at 3 519 kt through the improvement of paints quality to the level of that in developed countries in 1990s and installation of waste gas treatment equipments in newly-built factories. VOC emissions could be further reduced to 2243 kt if the quality of decorative paint and wood paint would be improved to the current level of that in developed countries and all factories install waste gas treatment equipments. All these control measures also helpe to reduce the toxicity and atmospheric oxidation reactivity of VOC emissions.