假日回顾。抛硬币的结果真的是随机的吗？
Holiday review. How random is the toss of a coin?
机构信息
St. Paul's Rotary Hearing Clinic, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC.
出版信息
CMAJ. 2009 Dec 8;181(12):E306-8. doi: 10.1503/cmaj.091733. Epub 2009 Dec 7.
BACKGROUND
The toss of a coin has been a method used to determine random outcomes for centuries. It is still used in some research studies as a method of randomization, although it has largely been discredited as a valid randomization method. We sought to provide evidence that the toss of a coin can be manipulated.
METHODS
We performed a prospective experiment involving otolaryngology residents in Vancouver, Canada. The main outcome was the proportion of "heads" coin tosses achieved (out of 300 attempts) by each participant. Each of the participants attempted to flip the coin so as to achieve a heads result.
RESULTS
All participants achieved more heads than tails results, with 7 of the 13 participants having significantly more heads results (p<or=0.05). The highest proportion of heads achieved was 0.68 (95% confidence interval 0.62-0.73, p<0.001).
INTERPRETATION
Certain people are able to successfully manipulate the toss of a coin. This throws into doubt the validity of using a coin toss to determine a chance result.
背景
抛硬币作为一种随机结果的确定方法已经使用了几个世纪。尽管它已被广泛认为是一种无效的随机化方法，但它仍在一些研究中被用作随机化方法。我们试图提供证据表明，抛硬币可以被操纵。
方法
我们在加拿大温哥华的耳鼻喉科住院医师中进行了一项前瞻性实验。主要结果是每个参与者实现的“正面”抛硬币（300 次尝试中的）比例。每个参与者都试图翻转硬币以获得正面结果。
结果
所有参与者的正面结果都多于反面结果，其中 13 名参与者中有 7 名的正面结果明显更多（p≤0.05）。达到的最高正面比例为 0.68（95%置信区间 0.62-0.73，p<0.001）。
解释
某些人能够成功地操纵抛硬币。这使得使用抛硬币来确定偶然结果的有效性受到质疑。
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