Health Promotion and Disease prevention Directorate, Federal Ministry of Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Health Res Policy Syst. 2009 Dec 13;7:29. doi: 10.1186/1478-4505-7-29.
The Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia has been publishing Health and Health related indicators of the country annually since 1987 E.C. These indicators have been of high importance in indicating the status of health in the country in those years. However, the trends/patterns of these indicators and the factors related to the trends have not yet been investigated in a systematic manner. In addition, there were minimal efforts to develop a model for predicting future values of Health and Health related indicators based on the current trend.
The overall aim of this study was to analyze trends of and develop model for prediction of Health and Health related indicators. More specifically, it described the trends of Health and Health related indicators, identified determinants of mortality and morbidity indicators and developed model for predicting future values of MDG indicators.
This study was conducted on Health and Health related indicators of Ethiopia from the year 1987 E.C to 2000 E.C. Key indicators of Mortality and Morbidity, Health service coverage, Health systems resources, Demographic and socio-economic, and Risk factor indicators were extracted and analyzed. The trends in these indicators were established using trend analysis techniques. The determinants of the established trends were identified using ARIMA models in STATA. The trend-line equations were then used to predict future values of the indicators.
Among the mortality indicators considered in this study, it was only Maternal Mortality Ratio that showed statistically significant decrement within the study period. The trends of Total Fertility Rate, physician per 100,000 population, skilled birth attendance and postnatal care coverage were found to have significant association with Maternal Mortality Ratio trend. There was a reversal of malaria parasite prevalence in 1999 E.C from Plasmodium Falciparum to Plasmodium Vivax. Based on the prediction from the current trend, the Millennium Development Goal target for under-five mortality rate and proportion of people having access to basic sanitation can be achieved.
The current trend indicates the need to accelerate the progress of the indicators to achieve MDGs at or before 2015, particularly for Maternal Health and access to safe water supply.
自 1987 年以来，埃塞俄比亚联邦卫生部每年都会发布该国的卫生和与卫生相关的指标。这些指标在反映该国当年的卫生状况方面具有重要意义。然而，这些指标的趋势/模式以及与趋势相关的因素尚未得到系统的研究。此外，几乎没有努力基于当前趋势为预测未来卫生和与卫生相关的指标值开发模型。
本研究的总体目标是分析卫生和与卫生相关的指标的趋势并开发预测模型。更具体地说，本研究描述了卫生和与卫生相关的指标的趋势，确定了死亡率和发病率指标的决定因素，并开发了预测千年发展目标指标未来值的模型。
本研究对 1987 年至 2000 年埃塞俄比亚的卫生和与卫生相关的指标进行了研究。提取并分析了死亡率和发病率、卫生服务覆盖率、卫生系统资源、人口和社会经济以及风险因素指标的关键指标。使用趋势分析技术确定这些指标的趋势。使用 STATA 中的 ARIMA 模型确定已建立趋势的决定因素。然后使用趋势线方程预测指标的未来值。
在所考虑的死亡率指标中，只有孕产妇死亡率在研究期间呈统计学显著下降趋势。总生育率、每 10 万人拥有的医生人数、熟练接生率和产后护理覆盖率的趋势与孕产妇死亡率趋势有显著关联。1999 年，疟原虫流行从恶性疟原虫转变为间日疟原虫。根据当前趋势的预测，可实现千年发展目标中五岁以下儿童死亡率和获得基本卫生设施的人口比例这两个目标。
当前趋势表明，需要加快这些指标的进展，以便在 2015 年之前实现千年发展目标，特别是在孕产妇健康和获得安全饮用水供应方面。
