The impact of new dental schools on the dental workforce through 2022.

Following a wave of dental school closures from 1986 to 2001 and a perceived shortage of dentists, three new dental schools were established between 1997 and 2003, and eight more are in various stages of planning and development to open over the next decade. Conditions are moving rapidly, and several institutions have stated intentions to open new dental schools since this analysis. This article presents a supply-side analysis of the impact of the new schools on the effective dentist to population ratio, taking into account changes in graduation rates, retirement rate, population growth, productivity, and gender ratio of the profession. Demand-side factors including utilization, per patient expenditures, and case mix are addressed, as well as the implications of these changes on access to care and the future of the profession. Given approximately ten new schools, by 2022, an additional 8,233 graduates will have joined the workforce, or approximately three dentists per 100,000 people. Effective dentist to population ratios vary greatly depending on all of the factors addressed. Changes in productivity influence the effective ratio most significantly. Most probable scenarios for the dental workforce suggest a stable dentist to population ratio at minimum, with an increase likely given recent productivity changes. The increase in dentists will not noticeably improve access to care for low-income and rural populations absent additional public funding to support demand for these populations and concurrent measures to effect even distribution of dentists throughout the country.