Wang Jian, Li Xue-liang, Li Fa-yun, Bao Hong-xu
School of Environmental Science, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110036, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2009 Sep;20(9):2233-40.
By the methods of system dynamics, a water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) model was constructed, and the dynamic trend of the WECC in Liaoning Province was simulated by using this model, in combining with analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and the vector norm method. It was predicted that under the conditions of maintaining present development schemes, the WECC in this province in 2000-2050 would be decreased year after year. Only increasing water resources supply while not implementing scientific and rational management of water environment could not improve the regional WECC, and the integration of searching for new and saving present water resources with controlling wastewater pollution and reducing sewage discharge would be the only effective way to improve the WECC and the coordinated development of economy, society, and environment in Liaoning.
运用系统动力学方法构建了水环境承载力（WECC）模型，并结合层次分析法（AHP）和向量范数法，利用该模型模拟辽宁省水环境承载力的动态变化趋势。预测在维持现有发展模式的条件下，2000—2050年该省的水环境承载力将逐年下降。仅增加水资源供给而不实施科学合理的水环境管理，无法提高区域水环境承载力，寻求新的水资源与节约现有水资源、控制废水污染和减少污水排放相结合，才是提高辽宁省水环境承载力以及实现经济、社会和环境协调发展的唯一有效途径。
