Wang Peng, Deng Hongwei
School of Resources & Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, 410083, Hunan, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Apr;30(20):57728-57746. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-26574-5. Epub 2023 Mar 27.
Water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) is an important indicator for assessing the coordination between the water environment and the social-economic-resources and environment subsystems. In this study, to determine the WECC of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration in Xiang River Basin, a three-level index system was established using an analytic hierarchy process. Because the previous evaluation system lacked continuous indicators, the results could not reflect the differences of WECC within the administrative units, thus, this study selected 4 continuous indicators, and finally an evaluation index system including 15 indicators was established. Based on the TOPSIS model and logistic regression model, the current situation and change trend of WECC in the study area were obtained in ArcGIS. The results showed that the comprehensive WECC in this region was inferior in 2020, particularly in urban concentrated areas, and it was extremely uneven in spatial distribution. The WECC decreased significantly from 2011 to 2014 and gradually improved from 2014 to 2020. According to the prediction results, the WECC will increase in the future, with an average value of 0.54 in 2025 and 0.60 in 2035. This study will have important guiding implications for the protection and improvement of the water environment in the study area and related areas.
水环境承载能力（WECC）是评估水环境与社会经济 - 资源环境子系统之间协调性的重要指标。在本研究中，为确定湘江流域长株潭城市群的水环境承载能力，采用层次分析法建立了三级指标体系。由于以往的评价体系缺乏连续性指标，结果无法反映行政单元内水环境承载能力的差异，因此，本研究选取了4个连续性指标，最终建立了一个包含15个指标的评价指标体系。基于TOPSIS模型和逻辑回归模型，在ArcGIS中得出研究区域水环境承载能力的现状和变化趋势。结果表明，该区域2020年综合水环境承载能力较差，尤其是在城市集中区域，且空间分布极不均衡。2011 - 2014年水环境承载能力显著下降，2014 - 2020年逐渐改善。根据预测结果，未来水环境承载能力将有所增加，2025年平均值为0.54，2035年为0.60。本研究将对研究区域及相关地区的水环境保护与改善具有重要的指导意义。
