B-type natriuretic peptide and severe heart failure at baseline predict overall mortality in incident dialysis patients.

AIMS

The B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) has become increasingly important as a diagnostic and prognostic method for cardiovascular disease or death. To our knowledge no prospective studies exist to evaluate the value of baseline BNP and baseline heart failure as predictors of overall death in incident rather than prevalent hemodialysis patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD).

METHODS

255 ESRD patients were included in our observational study with a median observation period of 1.11 years. A Kaplan-Meier survival curve was stratified by BNP concentration (< 340 pg/ml and > or = 340 pg/ml) to estimate the impact on the overall mortality rate. Univariate and multiple Cox regression models were fitted for a variety of covariables including severe heart failure (graded according to the New York Heart Association) to evaluate the independent predictors of death. Association between BNP and four explanatory variables was described in a multiple linear regression model.

RESULTS

Survival analysis demonstrated a significantly higher mortality rate in patients with higher BNP values at baseline. The independent predictive value of high BNP concentration at baseline could be statistically confirmed by multiple Cox regression analysis. However, when including the covariates hemoglobin and severe heart failure, significantly associated with BNP, in the same model, severe heart failure rather than BNP becomes a significant predictor of overall death.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher BNP level at baseline may be confirmed as an independent predictor of death in the incident dialysis population. However, severe heart failure may affect the impact of BNP on the overall survival rate and thus be a stronger predictor of death than BNP.