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贝叶斯分层模型在颗粒物暴露对心脏反应中的应用。

Bayesian hierarchical modeling of cardiac response to particulate matter exposure.

机构信息

Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708-0251, USA.

出版信息

J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol. 2011 Jan-Feb;21(1):74-91. doi: 10.1038/jes.2009.58. Epub 2009 Dec 30.

DOI:10.1038/jes.2009.58
PMID:20040931
Abstract

Studies have linked increased levels of particulate air pollution to decreased autonomic control, as measured by heart rate variability (HRV), particularly in susceptible populations such as the elderly. In this study, we use data obtained from the 1998 USEPA epidemiology-exposure longitudinal panel study of elderly adults in a Baltimore retirement home to examine the relationship between HRV and PM₂.₅ personal exposure. We consider PM₂.₅ personal exposure in the aggregate and personal exposure to the components of PM₂.₅ as estimated in two ways using receptor models. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for HRV as a function of personal exposure to PM₂.₅, which integrates HRV measurements and data obtained from personal, indoor and outdoor PM₂.₅ monitoring and meteorological data. We found a strong relationship between decreased HRV (HF, LF, r-MSSD and SDNN) and total personal exposure to PM₂.₅ at a lag of 1 day. Using personal exposure monitoring (PEM) apportionment results, we examined the relative importance of ambient and non-ambient personal PM₂.₅ exposure to HRV and found the effect of internal non-ambient sources of PM₂.₅ on HRV to be minimal. Using the PEM apportionment data, a consistent effect of soil at short time scales (lag 0) was found across all five HRV measures, and an effect of sulfate on HRV was seen for HF and r-MSSD at the moving average of lags 0 and 1 days. Modeling of ambient site apportionment data indicated effects of nitrate on HRV at lags of 1 day, and moving averages of days 0 and 1 and days 0-2 for all but the ratio LF/HF. Sulfate had an effect on HRV at a lag of 1 day for four HRV measures (HF, LF, r-MSSD, SDNN) and for LF/HF at a moving average of days 0-2.

摘要

研究表明,空气中颗粒物污染水平的增加与自主神经控制的降低有关,这可以通过心率变异性(HRV)来衡量,尤其是在老年人等易感人群中。在这项研究中,我们使用了 1998 年美国环保署(USEPA)对巴尔的摩退休老人进行的流行病学-暴露纵向面板研究的数据,来研究 HRV 与 PM₂.₅ 个体暴露之间的关系。我们考虑了 PM₂.₅ 的个体暴露,其方式是使用两种受体模型综合考虑 PM₂.₅ 的组成部分的个体暴露。我们开发了一个贝叶斯分层模型,将 HRV 作为 PM₂.₅ 个体暴露的函数,该模型整合了 HRV 测量值以及从个人、室内和室外 PM₂.₅ 监测和气象数据中获得的数据。我们发现,HRV(HF、LF、r-MSSD 和 SDNN)与 PM₂.₅ 的总个体暴露之间存在很强的负相关关系,滞后时间为 1 天。使用个人暴露监测(PEM)分配结果,我们考察了环境和非环境 PM₂.₅ 个体暴露对 HRV 的相对重要性,发现内部非环境 PM₂.₅ 源对 HRV 的影响最小。使用 PEM 分配数据,在所有五个 HRV 指标中,都发现了短时间尺度(滞后 0)土壤的一致影响,在 HF 和 r-MSSD 中观察到硫酸盐对 HRV 的影响,滞后时间为 0 和 1 天的移动平均值。环境站点分配数据的模型化表明,硝酸盐对 HRV 的影响滞后时间为 1 天,在滞后时间为 0 和 1 天以及滞后时间为 0-2 天的移动平均值的情况下,除了 LF/HF 比值外,硝酸盐对所有 HRV 指标都有影响。硫酸盐对 HRV 的影响滞后时间为 1 天,对四个 HRV 指标(HF、LF、r-MSSD、SDNN)以及滞后时间为 0-2 天的 LF/HF 移动平均值都有影响。

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