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一个用于异性传播疾病的多群组模型。

A multigroup model for a heterosexually transmitted disease.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria P.O. BOX 3060 STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada.

出版信息

Math Biosci. 2010 Apr;224(2):87-94. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2009.12.008. Epub 2010 Jan 4.

DOI:10.1016/j.mbs.2009.12.008
PMID:20043928
Abstract

A multigroup model is considered for a disease transmitted heterosexually in which there is a core group that has higher sexual activity than other groups. In order to develop control strategies to eradicate the disease, type reproduction numbers are determined. A graph-theoretic interpretation of type reproduction numbers for a star network with a core group at the center is established. Using these general formulas for the star network, a two-group model consisting of a core and a non-core group is considered. If disease can persist in the core group in isolation, then the amount of increase of treatment or decrease of the contact rate of infectious males (or females) in the core group that is required to eradicate the disease is expressed in terms of model parameters. If disease can persist but not in either group in isolation, then the amount of reduction of the connection between the two groups needed to eradicate the disease is determined. These two cases are illustrated with parameters applicable to gonorrhea in the US.

摘要

考虑了一种异性传播的疾病的多群组模型,其中有一个核心群组,其性行为比其他群组更为活跃。为了制定消灭疾病的控制策略,确定了类型繁殖数。建立了具有中心核心组的星形网络的类型繁殖数的图论解释。利用星形网络的这些一般公式,考虑了由核心组和非核心组组成的两个群组模型。如果疾病可以在核心组中单独持续存在,那么消灭疾病所需的核心组中治疗的增加量或传染性男性(或女性)接触率的减少量(以模型参数表示)。如果疾病可以持续存在,但在任何一组中都不能单独存在,那么就需要减少两组之间的联系来消灭疾病。这两种情况都用适用于美国淋病的参数进行了说明。

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