Boom in rest homes in Auckland: implications for the future.

Available beds for frail elderly people in the rest home sector in Auckland increased from 44 to 67 per 1000 population over 65 years between 1981 and 1988. This expansion is partly explained by the financial incentives provided by various government subsidies including an open-ended number of rest home subsidies available subject only to an assessment by a geriatric team and a means and assets test. Four estimates of the number of beds required in the Auckland region for the year 2001 indicate that as few as 3414 beds or as many as 7450 beds will be required depending on the assumptions used. The best estimate suggests that approximately 5200 beds are required for the population 65 years and over in the year 2001, 800 fewer than the 6000 currently available. This estimate does not include an allowance for the provision of care for people less than 65 years of age, nor for a proportion of beds to remain vacant and nor for seasonal fluctuations in the demand for rest home beds. These projections have important policy implications for the future funding and provision of rest home care.