Isaev A S, Sukhovol'skiĭ V G, Buzykin A I, Ovchinnikova T M
Zh Obshch Biol. 2009 Nov-Dec;70(6):451-8.
The changes of arboreous coenoses composition resulting from natural and anthropogenic impacts are considered. The mathematical model is proposed and verified that describes arboreous cenoses transition from one succession state into another by analogy with phase transition in statistical physics. It is demonstrated that the model is concordant with the data of full-scale observations. The model allows to explain the trend of succession processes and determine the stage of forestation process at which succession transitions should be expected. The analysis of full-scale observations data by means of the proposed approach makes it possible to calculate, for given regions and forest types, the critical values of planting phytomass that, upon being attained, initiate the succession transition. Those values are important to be known for middle- and long-term forecasting of forest cover dynamics.
研究了自然和人为影响导致的树木群落组成变化。提出并验证了一个数学模型，该模型描述了树木群落从一个演替状态到另一个演替状态的转变，类似于统计物理学中的相变。结果表明，该模型与实地观测数据一致。该模型能够解释演替过程的趋势，并确定预计会发生演替转变的造林过程阶段。通过所提出的方法对实地观测数据进行分析，可以针对给定区域和森林类型计算种植植物量的临界值，一旦达到该临界值，就会引发演替转变。了解这些值对于森林覆盖动态的中长期预测很重要。
