Sokolow Susanne
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, 1156 High St., Santa Cruz, California 95064, USA.
Dis Aquat Organ. 2009 Nov 16;87(1-2):5-18. doi: 10.3354/dao02099.
A close examination of the coral disease literature reveals many hypothesized mechanisms for how coral disease may be linked to climate change. However, evidence has been largely circumstantial, and much uncertainty remains. Here, I review the latest information on both the predicted effects of climate change in coastal marine ecosystems and current research on coral-pathogen dynamics in relation to climate variables. The published evidence supports the hypothesis that coral infectious diseases are emerging and demonstrates that coral disease research has been exponentially expanding over the last few decades. Current research suggests that environmental factors, such as ocean warming, altered rainfall, increased storm frequency, sea level rise, altered circulation, and ocean acidification may play a role in coral disease. These climate variables likely alter coral epidemiology through effects on pathogen growth rates, transmission, virulence, and susceptibility. Despite recent advances, discovering the causes of coral disease emergence at large spatial and temporal scales has been hindered by several factors including (1) the inability to rely on Koch's postulates for diseases with multifactorial etiologies, (2) the paucity of long-term, coordinated, coral disease data, and (3) the difficulty in detecting correlations in inherently non-linear, dynamic disease systems. In a rapidly changing global environment, the consequences of increasing coral disease may be severe, leading to elevated extinction risk and loss of critical reef habitat. Current evidence is still preliminary but is increasingly suggestive that mitigating the effects of climate change may help reduce the emergence of disease and improve the health of coral reef ecosystems.
对珊瑚疾病文献的仔细研究揭示了许多关于珊瑚疾病如何与气候变化相关联的假设机制。然而，证据大多是间接的，仍存在许多不确定性。在此，我回顾了有关沿海海洋生态系统气候变化预测影响的最新信息，以及当前关于珊瑚 - 病原体动态与气候变量关系的研究。已发表的证据支持珊瑚传染病正在出现这一假设，并表明在过去几十年中珊瑚疾病研究呈指数级增长。当前研究表明，诸如海洋变暖、降雨变化、风暴频率增加、海平面上升、环流改变和海洋酸化等环境因素可能在珊瑚疾病中起作用。这些气候变量可能通过影响病原体的生长速率、传播、毒力和易感性来改变珊瑚流行病学。尽管最近取得了进展，但在大时空尺度上发现珊瑚疾病出现的原因受到了几个因素的阻碍，包括（1）对于具有多因素病因的疾病无法依赖科赫法则，（2）长期、协调的珊瑚疾病数据匮乏，以及（3）在本质上非线性的动态疾病系统中难以检测相关性。在快速变化的全球环境中，珊瑚疾病增加的后果可能很严重，导致灭绝风险升高和关键珊瑚礁栖息地丧失。目前的证据仍然是初步的，但越来越表明减轻气候变化的影响可能有助于减少疾病的出现并改善珊瑚礁生态系统的健康状况。
