Carson Derek, Lindsay William R, O'Brien Gregory, Holland Anthony J, Taylor John L, Wheeler Jessica R, Middleton Claire, Price Karen, Steptoe Lesley, Johnston Susan
University of Abertay, Dundee, UK.
Crim Behav Ment Health. 2010 Feb;20(1):39-50. doi: 10.1002/cbm.755.
There is a need for research to promote an understanding among service developers on why people with intellectual disabilities (ID) are referred to offender services in order for them to receive appropriate assessment and treatment. Previous studies investigating referrals into forensic ID services have concentrated on referral sources and administrative variables such as legal status.
To construct a predictive model for choice of service referral based on a comprehensive range of information about the clientele.
We conducted a case record study of 336 people referred to community services and 141 to secure provision. We gathered information on referral source, demographics, diagnosis, index behaviour, prior problem behaviours and history of abuse.
Comparisons revealed 19 candidate variables which were then entered into multivariate logistic regression. The resulting model retained six variables: community living at time of referral, physical aggression, being charged, referral from tertiary health care, diverse problem behaviour and IQ < 50, which correctly predicted the referral pathway for 85.7% of cases.
An index act of physical aggression and a history of diversity of problem behaviours as predictors against the likelihood of community service referral suggest that professionals have similar concerns about people with ID as they do about their more average offending peers; however, the more severe levels of ID mitigated in favour of community referral, regardless. Offenders with ID tend to be referred within levels of service rather than between them, for example, form tertiary services into generic community services.
需要开展研究，以促进服务开发者理解为何智力残疾者会被转介至罪犯服务机构，以便他们能获得适当的评估和治疗。以往调查向法医智力残疾服务机构转介情况的研究主要集中在转介来源和法律地位等行政变量上。
基于一系列有关服务对象的全面信息构建一个服务转介选择预测模型。
我们对336名被转介至社区服务机构的人和141名被转介至安全保障机构的人进行了病例记录研究。我们收集了有关转介来源、人口统计学信息、诊断、索引行为、既往问题行为和虐待史的信息。
比较显示有19个候选变量，随后将其纳入多因素逻辑回归分析。最终模型保留了6个变量：转介时的社区生活状况、身体攻击行为、被指控情况、来自三级医疗保健机构的转介、多种问题行为以及智商<50，该模型正确预测了85.7%病例的转介途径。
身体攻击行为这一索引行为以及多种问题行为的历史作为预测社区服务转介可能性的因素表明，专业人员对智力残疾者的担忧与对普通犯罪同龄人相似；然而，无论如何，更严重的智力残疾程度有利于社区转介。智力残疾罪犯往往是在服务级别内而非不同级别之间被转介，例如，从三级服务机构转介至一般社区服务机构。
