Médecins sans Frontières, Medical Department (Operational Research), Brussels Operational Centre, Belgium.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2010 Jun;104(6):387-91. doi: 10.1016/j.trstmh.2010.01.004. Epub 2010 Feb 8.
Scientists from the WHO have presented a theoretical mathematical model of the potential impact of universal voluntary HIV testing and counselling followed by immediate antiretroviral therapy (ART). The results of the model suggests that, in a generalised epidemic as severe as that in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), HIV incidence may be reduced by 95% in 10 years and that this approach may be cost effective in the medium term. This offers a 'ray of hope' to those who have thus far only dreamed of curbing the HIV/AIDS epidemic in SSA, as until now the glaring truth has been pessimistic. When it comes to ART, approximately 7 of 10 people who clinically need ART still do not receive it. From an epidemic point of view, for every person placed on ART an estimated four to six others acquire HIV. The likelihood of achieving the targets of the Millennium Development Goals for 2015 and universal ART access by 2010 are thus extremely low. A new window of opportunity may have now opened, but there are many unanswered feasibility and acceptability issues. In this paper, we highlight four key operational challenges linked to acceptability and feasibility and discuss possible ways forward to address them.
世界卫生组织的科学家们提出了一个理论数学模型,用于预测普遍自愿艾滋病毒检测和咨询,以及随后立即进行抗逆转录病毒治疗(ART)的潜在影响。该模型的结果表明,在像撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)那样严重的普遍流行中,艾滋病毒的发病率可能在 10 年内降低 95%,并且这种方法在中期可能具有成本效益。这为那些迄今为止只梦想遏制 SSA 艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行的人带来了“一线希望”,因为到目前为止,悲观的事实一直很明显。在接受 ART 治疗方面,大约每 10 个需要接受治疗的人中就有 7 人没有接受治疗。从流行的角度来看,每有一人接受 ART 治疗,估计就有四到六人感染艾滋病毒。因此,实现 2015 年千年发展目标和到 2010 年普及接受 ART 治疗的目标的可能性极低。现在可能出现了一个新的机会窗口,但仍有许多未解决的可行性和可接受性问题。在本文中,我们重点介绍了与可接受性和可行性相关的四个关键操作挑战,并讨论了可能的解决办法。