School of Civil Engineering, Building J05, University of Sydney NSW 2006, Australia.
Waste Manag. 2010 May;30(5):902-11. doi: 10.1016/j.wasman.2009.12.026. Epub 2010 Feb 8.
This paper describes the development and application of the Stochastic Integrated Waste Management Simulator (SIWMS) model. SIWMS provides a detailed view of the environmental impacts and associated costs of municipal solid waste (MSW) management alternatives under conditions of uncertainty. The model follows a life-cycle inventory approach extended with compensatory systems to provide more equitable bases for comparing different alternatives. Economic performance is measured by the net present value. The model is verified against four publicly available models under deterministic conditions and then used to study the impact of uncertainty on Sydney's MSW management 'best practices'. Uncertainty has a significant effect on all impact categories. The greatest effect is observed in the global warming category where a reversal of impact direction is predicted. The reliability of the system is most sensitive to uncertainties in the waste processing and disposal. The results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty at all stages to better understand the behaviour of the MSW system.
本文描述了随机综合废物管理模拟器（SIWMS）模型的开发和应用。SIWMS 提供了一种详细的视角，可观察在不确定性条件下，城市固体废物（MSW）管理替代方案的环境影响和相关成本。该模型采用生命周期清单方法，并扩展了补偿系统，为比较不同替代方案提供了更公平的基础。经济绩效通过净现值来衡量。该模型在确定性条件下与四个公开可用的模型进行了验证，然后用于研究不确定性对悉尼 MSW 管理“最佳实践”的影响。不确定性对所有影响类别都有重大影响。在全球变暖类别中观察到最大的影响，预计该类别中的影响方向会发生逆转。系统的可靠性对废物处理和处置中的不确定性最为敏感。结果强调了在所有阶段纳入不确定性的重要性，以便更好地了解 MSW 系统的行为。
