Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2010 Jan;1185:150-63. doi: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05168.x.
This paper reviews the literature on the economics of climate change adaptation in developing countries, and identifies three key points for consideration in future studies. One key point is that all development policy should be formulated using forecasts from climate science as a baseline. When this is not done, there is risk that a false status quo without climate change is seen as an implicit baseline. Another key point is that authors must be clearer about their behavioral assumptions: Many studies either (problematically) assume profit maximization on the side of farm households, or do not specify behavioral assumptions at all. A third important point is that the allocation of rights is crucial for the results; if households have a right to maintain their current livelihoods, the costs of climate change in developing countries are considerably greater than traditional willingness-to-pay studies would indicate. Thus, costs and benefits of climate change adaptation cannot be analyzed using economic aspects only; climate science, behavioral science, and legal and moral aspects have crucial implications for the outcome of the analysis.
本文回顾了发展中国家气候变化适应经济学的文献，并确定了未来研究中需要考虑的三个关键点。一个关键点是，所有发展政策都应以气候科学的预测为基准进行制定。如果不这样做，就有可能将没有气候变化的虚假现状视为隐含的基准。另一个关键点是，作者必须更加明确他们的行为假设：许多研究要么（有问题地）假设农户一方的利润最大化，要么根本没有说明行为假设。第三个重要的观点是，权利的分配对于结果至关重要；如果家庭有权维持其当前的生计，那么发展中国家气候变化的成本要比传统的意愿支付研究表明的成本高得多。因此，气候变化适应的成本和收益不能仅用经济方面进行分析；气候科学、行为科学以及法律和道德方面对分析结果具有至关重要的影响。
