Risk of recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, or death in hospitalized stroke patients.

OBJECTIVE

This study examines the risk of recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), vascular death, or all-cause death after hospitalized stroke in South Carolina.

METHODS

Patients with a primary diagnosis of stroke discharged from the year 2002 were identified from the state hospital discharge database. Kaplan-Meier estimates of recurrent stroke, MI, vascular death, all-cause death, and composite events were calculated at 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, and 4 years. Prognostic factors were assessed with multivariate Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

The search strategy identified 10,399 patients in 2002. The Kaplan-Meier estimate of cumulative risk at 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, and 4 years for recurrent stroke is 1.8%, 5.0%, 8.0%, 12.1%, 15.2%, and 18.1%; MI, 0.3%, 1.0%, 2.1%, 3.7%, 5.0%, and 6.2%; all-cause death, 14.6%, 20.6%, 24.5%, 30.9%, 36.2%, and 41.3%; vascular death, 11.4%, 14.8%, 17.1%, 20.7%, 23.8%, and 26.7%; and composite events of recurrent stroke, MI, or vascular death 13.6%, 19.5%, 24.7%, 31.6%, 36.8%, and 41.3%. The hazard ratio for composite events (recurrent stroke, MI, or death) increases with age (1.38, 1.35-1.41), is 1.12 (1.05-1.19) for African Americans compared to Caucasians, is 1.67 (1.57-1.77) for patients with a higher comorbidity index (> or = 2 vs <2), and is 1.34 (1.28-1.39) for patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage or intracerebral hemorrhage compared with ischemic stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest there is room for further improvement in secondary stroke prevention in South Carolina.