Kim Y J, Schoen R, Sarma P S
Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205.
Demography. 1991 Feb;28(1):159-73.
In the scenario of a sudden drop in fertility to replacement level. Preston (1986) argued that the population segment under age T, the length of generation, remained growth-free. Here we first present a new relationship for the momentum of any observed population as the ratio of 1) the proportion of the observed population under the mean age at childbearing to 2) the proportion of its life table population under that mean age. We then use that relationship to demonstrate Preston's approximation. Growth factors for other population segments are also presented. When the initial population is stable, momentum can be approximated as a function of the net reproduction rate alone.
在生育率突然降至更替水平的情况下。普雷斯顿(1986年)认为,年龄在T岁以下的人口部分,即世代长度,保持无增长状态。在这里,我们首先提出一个新的关系,用于衡量任何观察到的人口的增长势头,即1)观察到的人口中处于平均生育年龄以下的比例与2)其生命表人口中处于该平均年龄以下的比例之比。然后我们利用这个关系来证明普雷斯顿的近似值。还给出了其他人口部分的增长因素。当初始人口稳定时,增长势头可以仅作为净繁殖率的函数来近似。