Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Eur J Public Health. 2010 Oct;20(5):564-8. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckq011. Epub 2010 Feb 24.
Although alcohol seems to be an important determinant of the mortality crisis in the former Soviet Republic of Belarus, little systematic research has been done on the relationship between alcohol consumption and harm at the aggregate level. The aims of the present study were to estimate the effect of per capita alcohol consumption on all-cause mortality, mortality from alcohol poisoning and hospital admissions for alcohol psychosis in Belarus.
Annual data on the three outcomes and alcohol sale per capita for the period 1970-2005 were analysed using the Box-Jenkins technique. Female mortality was included as a control variable and regarded as a proxy for other causal factors. To incorporate the lag structure, a weighted input was used in which a geometrical lag-scheme was applied.
The outcomes suggest that a 1 l increase in consumption was associated with an increase in male all-cause mortality of ∼2.3%. The corresponding figures for alcohol poisoning mortality and alcohol psychosis admissions are 12 and 25%.
The present study strengthens the notion of alcohol consumption as an important determinant of population health in this part of the world, and thus the notion that alcohol control must be a key priority for Belorussian public health policy.
尽管酒精似乎是前苏联白俄罗斯共和国死亡危机的一个重要决定因素，但在酒精消费与伤害之间的关系方面，几乎没有进行过系统的研究。本研究的目的是评估人均酒精消费量对白俄罗斯全因死亡率、酒精中毒死亡率和酒精性精神病住院率的影响。
采用 Box-Jenkins 技术分析了 1970 年至 2005 年期间这三个结果和人均酒精销售的年度数据。女性死亡率被作为控制变量纳入，并被视为其他因果因素的替代指标。为了纳入滞后结构，使用了加权输入，其中应用了几何滞后方案。
结果表明，消费量增加 1 升与男性全因死亡率增加约 2.3%相关。酒精中毒死亡率和酒精性精神病入院率的相应数字分别为 12%和 25%。
本研究加强了这样一种观念，即酒精消费是世界这一地区人口健康的一个重要决定因素，因此，控制酒精必须成为白俄罗斯公共卫生政策的一个关键优先事项。
