Crawford School of Economics and Government (Building 132), The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.
Conserv Biol. 2010 Oct;24(5):1407-17. doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01489.x.
The nonuse (or passive) value of nature is important but time-consuming and costly to quantify with direct surveys. In the absence of estimates of these values, there will likely be less investment in conservation actions that generate substantial nonuse benefits, such as conservation of native species. To help overcome decisions about the allocation of conservation dollars that reflect the lack of estimates of nonuse values, these values can be estimated indirectly by environmental value transfer (EVT). EVT uses existing data or information from a study site such that the estimated monetary value of an environmental good is transferred to another location or policy site. A major challenge in the use of EVT is the uncertainty about the sign and size of the error (i.e., the percentage by which transferred value exceeds the actual value) that results from transferring direct estimates of nonuse values from a study to a policy site, the site where the value is transferred. An EVT is most useful if the decision-making framework does not require highly accurate information and when the conservation decision is constrained by time and financial resources. To account for uncertainty in the decision-making process, a decision heuristic that guides the decision process and illustrates the possible decision branches, can be followed. To account for the uncertainty associated with the transfer of values from one site to another, we developed a risk and simulation approach that uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the net benefits of conservation investments and takes into account different possible distributions of transfer error. This method does not reduce transfer error, but it provides a way to account for the effect of transfer error in conservation decision making. Our risk and simulation approach and decision-based framework on when to use EVT offer better-informed decision making in conservation.
自然的非使用（或被动）价值很重要，但用直接调查来量化这些价值既耗时又费成本。在缺乏这些价值估计的情况下，可能会减少对产生大量非使用效益的保护行动的投资，例如保护本地物种。为了帮助克服在分配保护资金方面的决策，这些决策反映了缺乏对非使用价值的估计，可以通过环境价值转移（EVT）间接估计这些价值。EVT 使用现有数据或来自研究地点的信息，以便将环境商品的估计货币价值转移到另一个地点或政策地点。在使用 EVT 时，面临的一个主要挑战是，从研究地点向政策地点转移非使用价值的直接估计值时，结果产生的误差的符号和大小（即转移价值超过实际价值的百分比）存在不确定性，而政策地点就是价值被转移的地点。如果决策框架不需要高度准确的信息，并且保护决策受到时间和财务资源的限制，那么 EVT 最有用。为了在决策过程中考虑不确定性，可以遵循一个决策启发式方法，该方法指导决策过程并说明可能的决策分支。为了考虑从一个地点到另一个地点转移价值的不确定性，我们开发了一种风险和模拟方法，该方法使用蒙特卡罗模拟来评估保护投资的净效益，并考虑了转移误差的不同可能分布。该方法不会减少转移误差，但它提供了一种在保护决策中考虑转移误差影响的方法。我们的风险和模拟方法以及何时使用 EVT 的决策框架为保护提供了更明智的决策。
