Stadnytska Tetiana, Braun Simone, Werner Joachim
Department of Psychology, University of Heidelberg, Germany.
Nonlinear Dynamics Psychol Life Sci. 2010 Apr;14(2):117-44.
Recent empirical studies from cognitive, social and biological psychology revealed the fractal properties of many psychological phenomena. Employing methodologies from time- and frequency-domain analyses enabled detecting persistent long-range dependencies in various psychological and behavioral time series. These very slowly decaying autocorrelations are known as 1/f noise and typical for self-similar long memory processes. This paper evaluated different estimators of long memory parameters commonly available in the open source statistical software R concerning their ability to distinguish between fractional Brownian motions and fractional Gaussian noises, stationary and nonstationary fractal processes, short and long memory series. The following procedures implemented in the R packages fractal and fracdiff were considered: PSD (hurstSpec), DFA, the Whittle method (FDWhittle), semiparametric estimators of Reisen (fdSperio) and Geweke & Porter-Hudak (fdGPH) as well as the approximate ML algorithm of Haslett and Raftery (fracdiff). The key finding of the study was that the performance of the methods strongly depends on the complexity of the underlying process and parameterizations. Since in empirical settings the true structure is never known, an elaborated strategy for the estimation of the long memory parameter d combining different techniques was developed and demonstrated on an empirical example.
认知心理学、社会心理学和生物心理学最近的实证研究揭示了许多心理现象的分形特性。采用时域和频域分析方法能够检测各种心理和行为时间序列中持续存在的长程相关性。这些衰减非常缓慢的自相关性被称为1/f噪声,是自相似长记忆过程的典型特征。本文评估了开源统计软件R中常用的长记忆参数的不同估计方法,考察它们区分分数布朗运动和分数高斯噪声、平稳和非平稳分形过程、短记忆和长记忆序列的能力。考虑了R包fractal和fracdiff中实现的以下程序:功率谱密度(hurstSpec)、重标极差分析(DFA)、惠特尔方法(FDWhittle)、赖森的半参数估计器(fdSperio)和格维克与波特-哈达克的估计器(fdGPH),以及哈斯利特和拉夫蒂的近似极大似然算法(fracdiff)。该研究的关键发现是,这些方法的性能很大程度上取决于潜在过程和参数化的复杂性。由于在实证研究中真实结构往往未知,因此开发了一种结合不同技术来估计长记忆参数d的详尽策略,并通过一个实证例子进行了演示。