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测试气候介导灭绝的替代模型。

Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations.

机构信息

U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, Alaska 99508-4650, USA.

出版信息

Ecol Appl. 2010 Jan;20(1):164-78. doi: 10.1890/08-1011.1.

Abstract

Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold temperature); and (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-yr periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators.

摘要

生物对气候变化的反应因分类群、纬度、海拔梯度和岛屿程度而异。然而,由于表型可塑性、生态型变异和对热应激的进化耐受等因素,人们仍然不太清楚损失是否应该在经历最大气候变化的种群中最大,还是在那些盛行气候最接近物种生物气候范围边缘的地方(例如,在最热、最干旱的地方)。1994-1999 年在大盆地山区对美洲兔(Ochotona princeps)的研究表明,20 世纪的种群灭绝是由生物地理、人为和特别是气候因素共同预测的。2005-2007 年的调查记录了在剩余地点,兔的分布范围进一步灭绝和在同一地点发生转移。为了评估支持涉及热应激对兔影响的替代假设的证据,我们在盆地 25 个有兔历史记录的地点附近的 156 个兔栖息地位置放置了温度传感器。我们将这些传感器数据的时间序列与历史气候网络内气象站的环境温度数据相关联。然后,我们利用这些高度相关的关系,并结合来自同一气象站的长期数据,根据 1945 年至 2006 年的温度数据,对兔栖息地内的温度进行回溯预测。为了解释损失模式,我们提出了三类直接热应激的替代类别:(1)急性冷应激(低于阈值温度的天数);(2)急性热应激(高于阈值温度的天数);和(3)慢性热应激(夏季平均温度)。气候变化被定义为我们的热指标在两个 31 年周期之间的变化:1945-1975 年和 1976-2006 年。我们发现,持久性模式很好地被气候指标所预测。我们最好的模型表明气候变化有一些影响;然而,最近和长期的慢性热应激和急性冷应激指标,以前都没有被认为是兔的应激源,是兔持续存在的一些最佳预测指标。研究结果表明,极其迅速的分布转移可以用气候影响来解释,并对重新引入和早期预警指标等保护主题具有重要意义。

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