Use of a population-based cancer registry to calculate twenty-year trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Fukui Prefecture.

BACKGROUND

There have been only a limited number of trend analyses of incidence and mortality using population-based cancer registry data in Japan, and the national statistics regarding incidence are estimated data. In the present study, data from the Fukui Prefecture cancer registry, which is the most accurate in Japan, were used to observe trends in incidence and mortality rates.

METHODS

Cancer incidence and mortality rates from 1984 through 2004 were obtained from the Fukui Prefecture cancer registry. Joinpoint analysis developed for the US National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program was used to compute and graphically present annual percentage changes in age-adjusted incidence and mortality in Fukui Prefecture.

RESULTS

On joinpoint analysis, there were slight increases in incidence at all cancer sites combined for both sexes from 1986, but the trend was not significant in Fukui. Mortality in women appeared to significantly decrease, while mortality in men, which had been increasing until 1999, began to significantly decrease thereafter. In an analysis by anatomical site, both the incidence and mortality of stomach cancer significantly decreased in both sexes. However, the incidence and mortality of breast and prostate cancers significantly increased. The mortality of liver and lung cancers also increased in both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer mortality has been declining in recent years, and the reduction in mortality from stomach cancer has significantly affected the trends in Fukui. Urgent cancer control planning by the Fukui local government is necessary, especially for cancers of the liver, lung, prostate, and breast.